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Amazon Doubles Down on AI With $200 Billion 2026 Capex as AWS Growth Holds

Investor reaction is split over whether the AWS-focused outlay hurts near-term margins or secures multi-year returns.

Overview

  • Amazon guided to roughly $200 billion in 2026 capital spending, a sharp step-up from about $130 billion in 2025, with most directed to AI data centers plus investments in robotics and Project Kuiper.
  • AWS revenue rose about 24% to $35.58 billion in Q4 with operating income up to $12.5 billion, supported by stronger core workloads and accelerating demand for AI services.
  • Amazon said its custom Trainium and Graviton chips now generate over $10 billion in annual revenue with triple-digit growth, and reported strong AI usage including a surge in Bedrock spending.
  • Shares fell 5.6% intraday on Feb. 6 following the capex outlook, and analysts remain divided, with DA Davidson downgrading to Neutral and cutting its target to $175 as others like Bank of America reiterated Buy citing expected AWS capex returns; Dan Ives trimmed his target to $300.
  • Reuters has reported Amazon is in talks about a potential multibillion-dollar investment in OpenAI, which, if finalized, could deepen its AI infrastructure strategy.