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Alaska Air Posts Modest Q4, Issues Wide 2026 Outlook as January Demand Rebounds

Guidance reflects fuel volatility and seasonality after 2025's demand shock, with corporate bookings roughly 20% higher to start January.

Overview

  • Alaska Air Group reported fourth-quarter revenue of $3.6 billion, a GAAP pretax margin of 0.8%, and adjusted earnings of $0.43 per share as RASM rose 0.6% year over year.
  • The company forecast 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.50 to $6.50 and projected a first-quarter adjusted loss per share between $0.50 and $1.50.
  • Management said early January bookings and yields strengthened, with first-quarter corporate bookings about 20% above last year, though $50–$100 million of potential revenue was missed because much of Q1 was pre-booked.
  • Alaska and Hawaiian now operate under a single certificate, and the group began selling SeattleLondon and SeattleRome flights alongside multi-currency sales and Japanese, Korean, and Italian-language websites.
  • Executives highlighted fuel as a major earnings swing factor given West Coast refining margins, citing Q4 economic fuel at $2.57 per gallon and estimating a 10-cent move can shift annual EPS by roughly $0.75.