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ACA Subsidy Standoff Sets Up Sharp 2026 Premium Hikes as Open Enrollment Nears

State notices and insurer filings point to steep 2026 costs with Congress still deadlocked.

Overview

  • The COVID-era expansion of Affordable Care Act premium tax credits, extended by the Inflation Reduction Act, is set to expire after Dec. 31, 2025.
  • Idaho’s early open enrollment shows approved average increases of about 10% for gross premiums and roughly 75% for what consumers pay after credits, or about $1,200 more per year, according to Your Health Idaho.
  • Massachusetts Health Connector says 2026 notices estimate more than $1,300 in average annual premium increases if the enhanced credits are not renewed.
  • Insurer filings indicate a median proposed 18% premium increase for ACA plans next year, and household examples, including an Oregon family, show potential monthly bills rising by roughly 45% without the added aid.
  • The government shutdown has left the subsidy extension tied up in a partisan standoff as open enrollment begins Nov. 1, and advocates warn automatic reenrollment could lock people into higher costs or lead to coverage losses if new bills go unpaid.